Phoenix through Hole in the Rock (Papago Park)

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On Nov. 4, 2019, the Paris Climate Agreement was in the news again because the Trump Administration gave written notice of their intent to withdraw from the international treaty. As I was reading the headlines, I realized I didn’t understand what was different between this announcement and the one made earlier on Jun. 4, 2017, when the President also stated the United States would be withdrawing. And then I realized I actually had a lot of questions about the Paris Climate Agreement. I knew that it had to do with limiting global greenhouse gas emissions to slow climate change and reduce its impact, but I didn’t know much beyond that. Additionally, the news articles I read assumed I already had the general background knowledge. But I didn’t know why it was important that the United States remain in the Paris Climate Agreement, I didn’t understand why we were withdrawing, and I knew some individual states were still committing to meet the intent of the Agreement, but I didn’t understand how individual states could kind of be a part of an International Agreement when the country as a whole was not.

I started digging and I’ve summarized what I learned below so we can all understand the basics of what the Paris Climate Agreement is, why it matters, and what the impact will be when the United States leaves the agreement.

Cholla Cactus in White Tank Mountains, AZ

The Basics

In December 2015, leaders or representatives from all countries across the world, with the exception of Syria who was absent due to their civil war, met in Paris at the 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference. You may see this meeting referred to as “COP 21.” COP stands for Conference of the Parties (“party” meaning equivalently in the language you and I speak as “countries”) and 21 refers to this being the 21st time this UN Climate Change Conference has met.

Before I go further into the details in the agreement, I’m going to pause on the number 21, because this caught me off guard. I thought this had been one of the first global meetings on climate change. I was very wrong in this thought. So let’s start with some history.

When was the First World Conference on Climate Change?

Do you have a guess? The first World Climate Conference took place between 12-23 February 1979. Let that sink in a moment. For you other Millennials – this is before we were born… We have literally been wasting my whole lifetime arguing about if climate change is real, if it matters, and what we should do about it, when scientists recognized there was a major problem 40 years ago and brought it to global attention. Upon realizing this, I’ve become quite upset at myself for not jumping into this issue sooner. But I’m in the fight now, and it’s easy to join if you feel the same way. Share this information with others and put pressure on our leaders by calling or emailing your Senators and Representative, and the US President to let them know your thoughts.

Climate change was recognized as a major problem in the 1970s, which led to the first World Climate Change Conference in 1979. At this conference, scientists discussed how climate change could change life for humans. The participants asked the governments across the globe to “foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity.” 40 years later, these scientists were right - California, Australia, and the Amazon Rainforest are on fire, Venice is at historic flooding, cities in South Africa, India, and Mexico are at risk of running out of drinking water, and hurricanes this year have resulted in more than $11.49 billion in damages. Imagine if the world leaders of the 1970s and 80s listened to these scientists when they gave us plenty of fair warning to make changes to prevent this… This conference also documented carbon dioxide (a prevalent greenhouse gas) as one cause of global warming. Seriously, there is no excuse for us being in the scenario we are today.

What is a Greenhouse Gas and Where Do Greenhouse Gas Emissions Come From?

A greenhouse gas acts just like a greenhouse does. Greenhouse gases in our atmosphere (the air that surrounds our planet) let sunshine pass through, but hold in the heat, preventing it from escaping back into space. Greenhouse gases are good – without them Earth would be frozen all of the time and we wouldn’t be able to live here. Greenhouse gases occur naturally, and the one of the most prevalent is carbon dioxide. When we breathe out, we send carbon dioxide into the air. Some of it remains in the air, but Earth has a way of using some of the carbon dioxide to ensure that there isn’t too much of it ends up in the air. Nature has developed systems to maintain balance. Plants use carbon dioxide to make energy, and thereby store this greenhouse gas while they live. As plants decay, the soil then holds the greenhouse gas for us. The oceans also absorb carbon dioxide, thereby limiting the amount which ends up in the air. The problem is simply that human activity (energy generation, transportation, and factories that make things) is not natural. These activities all result in the release of extra greenhouse gases into the air, and there isn’t something on our planet that can naturally store all of these emissions. When you hear the word “emissions” it’s referring the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that are due to human activity. You can see emissions coming from the vehicles in front of you on a cold day. Or if you live in a large crowded city, you can see emissions as the smog hanging in the air.

Smog over Phoenix from A Mountain (Arizona State University)

Up until very recently, the primary source of emissions was due to generation of electricity. As we are starting to use more renewable sources of energy (solar and wind), transportation (personal cars, trucks, trains, planes, and ships) has now overtaken energy generation as the top source of emissions in the United States. One other source of emissions is land use. Because trees suck up carbon dioxide, when we cut them down, we remove a place for our emissions to go, so more of our greenhouse gases stay in the air. And even worse, when a forest fire burns, the carbon dioxide previously held within the tree goes back into the air.

Trees are vital in our fight against Climate Change

If we know all of this and have known about it for 40 years, why do we still love fossil fuels so much, and why are we continuing to cut down forests? One of the answers is the efforts of the Global Climate Coalition.

What was the Global Climate Coalition?

Imagine for a moment if scientists had been able to make enough noise about climate change to teach the general public that burning fossil fuels would cause the planet to reach dangerous temperatures capable of causing sea level increases, severe flooding, droughts, water shortages, and wild fire increases – people would have supported moving to other sources of energy than the use of coal, oil, and natural gas, and we would have considered how else we could move ourselves and goods around the country and planet. Who would have been on the losing end of that stick? Companies that make money from our current and continued obsessive consumption of fossil fuels.

Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota

In 1989, the Global Climate Coalition formed from companies spanning petroleum, automotive, and energy industries. For a full list of the original companies and organization, click here. The goal of the GCC was not to create misinformation or convince the world scientists were wrong, but more to spread doubt and questions about whether or not climate change was real, even in the face of massive wild fires, floods, and hurricanes. They used vague and simple messages that were easy to understand in intent but difficult to fully debunk such as “the role of greenhouse gases in climate change is not well understood” and “scientists differ” in opinion. John Shlaes, the Global Climate Coalition Executive Director stated in 1992, “There is a clear danger in the debate on global climate change for policy makers to rush into action before the scientific community agrees that proposed actions will actually impact any climate trend…This is certainly true in the debate on climate change, where significant disagreements exist concerning everything form the validity of computer models that are used to predict a dangerous warming trend, to the role of man-made greenhouse gases in altering the dynamics of the natural greenhouse effect.” The GCC wanted to confuse the public enough to delay action that would result in change. Were they effective? When was the last argument you had with someone over climate change? Probably sometime in this past year. The Global Climate Coalition dissolved in 2002 as companies no longer wanted to be so obviously connected climate change denial, but its impact still very much exists within public thought.

High Falls - Tetteguche State Park, MN.Do you remember when Sen. Jim Inholfe (R-Okla.) threw a snowball on the Senate floor? “In case we have forgotten, because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record, I ask the chair, do you k… — High Falls - Tetteguche State Park, MN.
Do you remember when Sen. Jim Inholfe (R-Okla.) threw a snowball on the Senate floor? “In case we have forgotten, because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record, I ask the chair, do you know what this is? It’s a snowball. And it’s just from outside here. So it’s very, very cold out. Very unseasonable.” The GCC is no longer in existence, but it’s ideology still exists today in politics

The GCC also spent money lobbying congress for fossil fuel financial incentives and the continued use of fossil fuels. In example, in 2019 there is a tax credit of 30% for installing solar systems in your home. In 2020, this decreases to 26%, and by 2022 it further decreases to just 10%. Beyond 2022, there are no tax credits available for future solar installation. There is no end though to the Striking Oil tax benefits however. Your cost of drilling if you were to find oil would be 100% tax deductible (for everything with exception to buying the drilling equipment) in 2019, 2020, 2022, 2025, or any date in the future. Thank you GCC for the tangle of fossil fuel incentive laws that will be difficult to undo in the future to support renewable energy.

What were the Other Global Climate Conferences Leading Up to the Paris Climate Agreement?

The second World Climate Conference did not take place until 1990. It was agreed at this conference that Climate Change was a “common concern of humankind.” Although it was agreed upon at this point that greenhouse gas emissions were responsible at least in part for climate change, this conference did not set goals re reducing emissions. It did however start the idea that more developed countries should take the lead in the world in identifying and implementing sustainable renewable energy sources as they have more resources (both financially and in education) than less developed countries. Although there is a cost to investing in new technologies that Americans would need to pay as a developed country in the world, this seems like a reasonable concept to me. How would you expect countries that do not have enough resources to provide power to all homes to be a leader in creation and implementation of renewable energy sources??? Plus, these less developed countries are not the ones emitting the majority of greenhouse gases in the first place.

View of Phoenix lights from South Mountain

The next conference was held in New York on May 9, 1992. This conference established the International Treaty known as the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.” 154 countries signed this agreement with the goal of limiting further increases in the average global temperature. This agreement was important as it set the stage in 1995 for COP 1 (remember COP 21 is the Paris Climate Agreement) in Berlin, Germany. Although there was recognition that climate change was occurring as a result of human activity, there was still no agreement or commitment for what to do about it.

What was the Kyoto Protocol?

COP 3 occurred in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. During this conference, the first international agreement was created which set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2008-2012 for developed countries. Tighter emission reductions then occurred between 2013-2020. 192 countries signed the Kyoto Protocol, the United States included.

Have you heard of the Kyoto Protocol? I hadn’t. Guess who dropped out in 2001 because they thought the agreement was unfair to their economy? Unfortunately, yes, the United States left the agreement in 2001 because for the stated reason it was unfair that only industrialized nations needed to limit their emissions... Just so we are clear, “industrialized” versus “non-industrialized” – think coal smokestacks, manufacturing plants, and 6-lane interstates bumper to bumper with cars each sending carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This is what major cities in the US look like. Now picture a non-industrialized country where people walk instead of ride in cars and not all homes are powered by electricity. Which of these countries is responsible for the human activities which have led to climate change? And if we need to limit emissions globally, which of these countries can make a bigger impact if they cut their emissions?

Many countries in Europe did meet and some even beat their emissions goals by 2011, but the US and China did not. In fact, the US and China created so much greenhouse gas emissions that any progress made by the European countries was undone globally by the US and China. The net result was an increase in global emissions by 40% between 1990 and 2009.

Why Do We Need a Global Agreement?

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in 1880 the average temperature on Planet Earth has increased by 0.8 deg C due to greenhouse gas emissions essentially creating a blanket around our world holding in excess heat. This is causing the oceans to warm, the poles to melt, sea levels to rise, and devastating floods and wildfires are destroying communities. We have one shared planet. If all countries in the world were successful in reducing emissions with the exception of just one, and that one released enough greenhouse to undo everyone else’s progress, then we all still lose, and Earth’s temperature continues to rise. The impact of climate change is felt across the globe, although some areas are more vulnerable to sea level rise, some are more vulnerable to flooding, and some are more vulnerable to drought. These vulnerabilities are geographic and are not the result of emissions, meaning one country may be the cause of more emissions but a different country may be more vulnerable to the resulting climate change.

March for Science - Earth Day 2017 - MN State Capital

Because we are tied together in this crisis, the solution needs to be global. Bega Kwa Bega is a Swahili phrase meaning shoulder to shoulder. To fight climate change, the entire human race needs to work together shoulder to shoulder, and with urgency. Is there a cost to rebuilding our infrastructure to support a fossil-free existence? Of course. Will this have an impact on our economy? Of course. But what’s the alternative? Those thoughts that are seeds of doubt in your mind right now as you read this – those thoughts were paid for by the fossil fuel industry. This industry will lose a lot when we start walking a different direction and they aren’t going to go away quietly.

Which Countries are the Top Contributors of Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

I think there is one more important question to consider before diving into the Paris Climate Agreement details. Which countries are the top contributors of greenhouse gas emissions? The chart below shows how much of these greenhouse gases are released into the air by the top countries.

Data from https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/07/14/china-us-countries-that-produce-the-most-co-2-emissions/39548763/

China and the US are the top greenhouse gas emitters in the world. If you add up the next 18 countries together (using 2017 data), they do not total the amount of emissions released from China and the US. If we are going to tackle global climate change, we need the US and China to be leaders, and we need other countries to agree to follow and keep them from increasing their own emissions. If the US is not one of these leaders, we will not be able to solve climate change.

What is the Paris Climate Agreement?

The Paris Climate Agreement is a 16-page international treaty that was created at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, which was held in Paris, France. If you are interested in reading it, this is the link.

Since its creation, the Paris Climate Agreement has been signed by all 197 countries within the world. When the United States formally withdraws from the treaty on Nov 4, 2020, we will be the only country in the world that is not included in the Agreement.

The goal of the Paris Climate Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally in order to minimize continued global warming. Global warming is measured by comparing the current average world temperature to pre-industrial era global temperature in 1880. As of 2018, we have gained 0.8 deg C since 1880. The Agreement aims to keep the total temperature gain less than 2.0 deg C and to encourage additional efforts to keep it less than 1.5 deg. If you are curious about why this 1.5 deg C increase matters, take a look at an earlier post I wrote about the Global Tipping Point.

The Agreement recognizes two important elements in our fight to keep temperatures from rising – 1) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions 2) changes in land usage (ex. forestation) that impact emissions being naturally removed from the air.

Trees are invaluable in our fight to stop climate change

Each country that has signed onto the Paris Climate Agreement has agreed to a certain emission reduction, determined by that country. This is a pledge, not a legally binding promise. There is no punishment for not hitting your goal, although it is required that each country submit emission data. Countries can change their goal at any time, it just needs to be communicated. The Paris Climate Agreement works based on transparency, accountability, and shared best practices.

The Paris Climate Agreement also recognizes that each country is in a different stage of development and therefore has different responsibilities. This essentially means that a more developed country, like the United States, should take the lead in creating new technologies that do not rely on fossil fuels for energy and transportation.

The Agreement also recognizes that global adaptations are needed to adjust to the impacts of climate change, to ensure that our food supply is not threatened and that our cities and homes are built to withstand rising water, flooding, droughts, and wildfires. As good adaptation practices are developed, they are also expected to be shared. The Agreement states that scientific knowledge on climate research should be strengthened and shared, and that the public of all countries needs to be trained and have access to all information. Lastly, the Agreement specifies that early warning systems should be developed cooperatively across the world and emergency preparedness for events that may cause irreversible and permanent loss and danger.

That’s it in a nutshell. The Paris Climate Agreement asks each country to set their own emission reduction goal and to report on actual emissions, and to share knowledge and new technologies that can reduce emissions and help us adapt to the effects of climate change. If there is a reason for a country to change their emission goal, they can do that, they just need to be transparent and tell the rest of the world what their new goal is. It doesn’t seem to be that controversial, unless you don’t want to tell the world what your emissions were each year.

Is the Paris Climate Agreement Going to be Effective in Stopping Climate Change?

In short, no. If all countries hit their emission reduction goals, the average global temperature is predicted to rise 3 deg C. And sadly, even with this agreement in place and some countries starting to meet their emission reduction goals, worldwide usage of fossil fuels and their emissions continued to grow in 2018. We have a long way to go. But this Agreement is a place to start. Reaching agreement on vision is hard within a country let alone in all countries across the world. This Agreement at least creates some common values and goals to remain aligned around.

Why is the US Pulling Out of the Paris Climate Agreement?

On June 1, 2017, the Trump Administration declared that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. The problem with this announcement was that the Paris Climate Agreement states a country cannot give notice of withdrawal less than 3 years after signing into the agreement. The Obama administration entered the Agreement on Nov. 3, 2016. Essentially, the President just made his intention official on Nov. 4, 2019, stating that he had not changed his mind and has now signed the documents needed to formally withdraw. Because President Obama entered the Agreement through Executive Authority, without asking Congress to approve, a future president could remove us from the Agreement also by Executive Authority. Had Congress approved to the Paris Climate Agreement, it would have taken a future Congress to agree to removing us from the Agreement.

Why is the United States pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement? It’s the same reason that the US withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol. According to the Trump Administration, “The Paris accord will undermine US economy” and “put the US at permanent disadvantage.”

The United States is the second highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, and we’ve essentially told the world we don’t care of the mayhem that climate change may be causing in our country or others because fixing the problem will result in industries losing profit – those industries in specific being fossil fuel investments. What’s too bad is that we are not focusing on how to truly Make America Great. We can be leaders in green energy production and development. These can be good high paying jobs with good health benefits. These jobs can create small businesses, they can be profitable, and they can be located in both urban and rural parts of our country. All we need to do is commit to walking away from oil and coal. The losers are fossil fuel investors, not the American public. But the real problem is that access to wind and the sun cannot be limited to a small number of individuals that can benefit. So really this is just a story about money and power, but it isn’t a lost cause. We have more power than this industry if we all join together and use our voices.

How does Pulling Out of the Paris Climate Agreement Work?

Any country can state they no longer want to remain in the Paris Climate Agreement after three years from the date they signed to enter into the agreement. The process of withdrawing takes 12 months. The United States will formally exit the Agreement on Nov 4, 2020 (the day after the 2020 elections).

What Happens to the Agreement When the US Pulls Out?

There are two things lost when the US pulls out of the Agreement. 1) The United States is a top contributor of emissions, and we are no longer agreeing to reducing our usage of fossil fuels. That’s really hard for the rest of the world’s countries to make up for, especially if we end up increasing our usage. 2) We lose out on a position of leadership in the world. If we can’t lead in the fight against Climate Change, our ability to lead in other important areas is also gone on the world stage.

The survival of our National Bird, the Bald Eagle, is linked with Americans stepping in and working together to make changes. We need to act with similar urgency in this fight against climate change.

How are Individual States Stepping in to Help?

As of July 1, 2019, there are 24 states and Puerto Rico that are committing to emission target reductions. This helps in overall worldwide emission reductions, but we need to get to all 50 states walking shoulder to shoulder – Bega Kwa Bega. In example, we should not be arguing about gas mileage targets for the auto-industry state by state. We should be encouraging this industry instead to give consumers the best possible gas mileage to reduce both emissions and the expense we pay at the gas station over the life of the car.

What Can You Do?

Call or email your US House Representative and Senator, President Trump, the Environmental Protection Agency (led by Andrew Wheeler), the Department of Energy (led by Rick Perry), and your State House Representative and Senator. Then share this information with others, talk about it, and encourage everyone you know to contact these individuals as well.