Climate Change and the Global Tipping Point

Bell Rock, Sedona

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There are many aspects to Climate Change, but you don’t have to have a science degree to understand it.  This is my attempt at taking the science language and putting it into everyday words with the goal that you are comfortable talking about these issues with your neighbors and friends and that it gives you the background needed to learn more.  This article focuses on where carbon dioxide comes from, where it goes, what the Global Tipping Point is, and why we need to act with urgency, today.

Where does Carbon Dioxide Come From?

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Carbon dioxide has been present in the Earth’s atmosphere since the Earth first formed.  The atmosphere is the air that surrounds the planet. The atmosphere protects us from harmful UV radiation from the sun and the coldness of space.  Without our atmosphere, the Earth would be as barren as our moon or Mars.

Our present-day atmosphere is thought to have come from volcanic eruptions, which sent carbon dioxide and water vapor up into the atmosphere.  Think of a cold pop can on a hot humid day – the water vapor comes out of the atmosphere and condenses on the pop can into water droplets.  As the earth cooled, just like a cold pop can, water came out of the atmosphere and slowly filled in today’s oceans.  Carbon dioxide dissolves in water, so as the oceans were formed, carbon dioxide was removed from the atmosphere and was stored in the water.   Carbon dioxide is necessary for plant life.  Plants need carbon dioxide, water and sunlight to make sugar which helps plants grow.  As plants began to grow on Earth, more of the carbon dioxide was removed from the atmosphere and was stored in plants.  As the plants and animals (who ate plants or who ate animals which ate plants) died and their bodies decayed, the carbon dioxide was then stored in our soil. 

Where does Carbon Dioxide go?

A “Carbon Sink” is a place that stores carbon and prevents it from being released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide.  The primary Carbon Sinks on our planet are forests, the soil, and our oceans. 

How do Forests Act as a Carbon Dioxide Sink?

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All plants use carbon dioxide, water, and the sun’s energy to make sugar.  While the plants are alive, they remove carbon dioxide from the air and store it inside themselves.  As forests contain lots of large trees which each require a lot of carbon dioxide, forests end up storing a lot of the Earth’s carbon dioxide.  Within the United States alone, trees help us by removing about 16% of carbon dioxide resulting from humans burning oil, coal, and gas (US EPA 2013).  Trees can be part of the solution to Global Warming.  One way to remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere would be to plant more trees.

Have you heard recently in the news that humans are planting forests?  No?  I haven’t heard that news headline yet either…  Unfortunately, the opposite is true.  I do hear about deforestation, particularly in the rain forests, where trees are being cut down to be used for lumber, fuel wood, and paper, and to make space for farming, ranching, and road construction.  When trees are cut down, an active carbon sink which was previously helping us by removing carbon dioxide from the air is lost.  The net impact?    Fewer trees = more carbon dioxide in the air.

How can Forests Reverse and become a Source of Carbon Dioxide?

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Forests have been in our news frequently as wild fires have become larger and more common.  When a tree burns, it releases the carbon dioxide it was previously storing back into the atmosphere.  Forests thus can change from a Carbon Sink to a Carbon Source. 

As global temperatures rise, more water evaporates from lakes, rivers, and other bodies of water.  Water even evaporates faster out of plant life at warmer temperatures.  Thus, global warming can lead to increased periods of drought, which further increases the risk for forest fires. 

Increased forest fires increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the air, which continues to increase the planet’s temperature, which further increases the risk for drought and more fires.  Is this due to man or nature?  It really doesn’t matter because, eventually a tipping point will be reached that will be difficult to stop because it is beyond our control. 

How does Soil Serve as a Carbon Dioxide Sink?

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When trees and other plants and animals die, their bodies rest and decompose within the soil.  As the remains of plants and animals contain carbon, soil becomes a Carbon Sink.  More than half of all stored carbon on Earth resides within our soil due to plant and animal material in various stages of decay.

Do you think of the ground as “soil” or “dirt”?  Most of us use the word dirt, and in doing so, we fail to worry about caring for the health of our soil.  As we cut down trees and plow farmland, we make the soil more susceptible to erosion, which leads to the release of carbon from the soil.  The net impact?  Poor soil = more carbon dioxide in our air.

How can Soil reverse and become a Source of Carbon Dioxide?

Soil stores carbon locked in plant and animal material in various stages of decay.  Think of a hamburger left out on a warm day – would you eat it the next day?  As global temperatures rise, the temperature of soil increases, and the rate of decay speeds up, returning carbon dioxide to the air more quickly.  More carbon dioxide in the air continues to increase global temperatures which further increase the temperature of soil and the speed of decay, until another tipping point is reached.  Is the rate of plant and animal material decay due to man or nature?  Again, it doesn’t matter, because after the tipping point is reached it will be difficult to stop because it is out of our control.

How do Oceans Act as a Carbon Dioxide Sink?

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Oceans are the largest carbon sink on earth.  Approximately ¼ of all carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere is reabsorbed by the oceans.  Carbon dioxide dissolves easily into water, and it is pulled out of the air when the concentration of carbon dioxide is greater in the air than in the water.  Within the water, carbon dioxide is used by and stored within algae, vegetation, and coral. 

Cold water absorbs more carbon dioxide than warmer sea water, thus there is more carbon dioxide stored in the lower deeper water.  As the oceans warm, they are less able to absorb the same amount of carbon dioxide.  As oceans warm, they become less efficient as Carbon Sinks.

How can the Oceans reverse and become a Source of Carbon Dioxide?

As global temperatures rise, ocean water rises in temperature.  In addition to warmer ocean water being able to hold less carbon dioxide than cold water, plant life within the ocean that stores the carbon dioxide is dying due to warmer temperatures and releases the carbon dioxide back into the ocean where it can bubble up to the surface and be released back into the air.  As more carbon dioxide is released into the air, the global temperature continues to rise, and as the temperature of the oceans rise this continues to kill more plant life and the ocean holds less carbon dioxide.  Is this due to man or nature?  Eventually it won’t matter; after the tipping point is reached it will be difficult to stop because it is out of our control.

What is the Global Tipping Point?

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Scientists predict that an increase in global temperatures of 1.5 deg C (2.7 deg F) compared to temperatures of 1880 (when temperatures across the planet began being recorded) will be the beginning of when Earth begins to cross “tipping points” where temperatures will increase at an increased rate at which point human intervention may be too late to slow future temperature increases down.  Note that this is a prediction – it could be more than 1.5 deg C, it could be less.  Regardless, we don’t want to get anywhere near the actual tipping point.

What Happens When We Cross the Global Tipping Point?

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Think for a moment about planning for a day spent outside on a hot sunny day.  Do you put on a white shirt or a black shirt?  Most likely you will pick a lighter colored shirt.  The sun reflects off light colors.  If you pick a black shirt, you will feel warmer as the heat from the sun’s energy is absorbed more quickly into darker colors.  Snow is white; therefore, it reflects more of the sun’s energy than water which is a darker color.  There is a lot of snow and ice at Earth’s poles, which is constantly reflecting away the sun’s energy.  As the snow and ice melt, the color gets darker, and more of the sun’s energy is absorbed, which will increase the planet’s temperature quicker.  As more snow and ice melt, the global temperature will increase, and even more snow and ice will melt increasing the rate of the planet’s increasing temperatures. 

You may have heard of the term “Permafrost” in the news.  Permafrost is the term used to describe ground that is permanently frozen (it does not thaw with the seasons).  Permafrost includes ground that has been frozen for hundreds of thousands of years (such as at the Arctic and Antarctic poles).  When the ground is frozen, plant and animal material that is stored within the ground stops decaying.  The carbon remaining within this material remains locked within the permafrost.  When global temperatures reach a point at which the permafrost begins to thaw, decay of this plant and animal material begins again, and carbon dioxide can be released into the air.  Increased carbon dioxide in the air, further increases the global temperature which leads to more permafrost thawing and more carbon dioxide being released into the air – another global tipping point.

As oceans increase in temperature, the sea plant and animal life currently storing carbon will die-off, and as their bodies decay, the carbon dioxide will be released into the atmosphere further increasing the planet’s temperature.  As increased global temperatures increase droughts in regions around the world, trees will die off, no longer storing carbon but instead releasing it into the air through decay and increased risk for forest fire.  And as soil temperatures increase, the rate of animal and plant material decay will increase, releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere more quickly.  This leads to increased global temperatures which will further cause more carbon dioxide release into the air, over and over, and how can we stop this once it’s started?  These are some of our global tipping points we might reach as early as 2030 (according to the UN report released in Oct 2018). 

We have approximately 12 years to make major global changes significant enough to halt this tipping point from being reached.  That’s not a lot of time – our children and our grandchildren need us to take this issue seriously, now.  Their future and ours depend on us, our values, and our actions.

Why is Climate Change Happening?

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Humans have a direct impact on how much carbon dioxide is released into planet Earth’s atmosphere.  When we burn coal, oil, and natural gas, carbon dioxide is released into the air.  Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in 1750, we have increased the amount of carbon dioxide within the air by 40%.  Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas which prevents the sun’s heat from escaping back into space.  We use coal, natural gas, diesel and gasoline to generate electricity, fuel industrial manufacturing plants, and power our transportation; all which release carbon dioxide into the air.  Forests naturally remove carbon dioxide from the air.  Instead of planting forests though, we have been cutting them down to make space for farming and ranching, and to use the wood for timber and fuel.  Soil is a storage location for decaying plant and animal material.  As we till the land for agricultural usage, we also release the stored carbon dioxide more quickly.  This increased carbon dioxide has increased our planet’s temperature, which then has secondary effects (beyond man’s control) of further releasing stored carbon dioxide into the air, which continues to increase our planet’s temperature.

What Happens if We Do Nothing?

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According to the UN Report from Oct 2018, if we do nothing, we are likely to reach the 1.5 deg C tipping point between 2030 and 2052.  I don’t want this to be a partisan post.  It doesn’t matter if you lean conservative in your thoughts and values or liberal or if you are someplace in the middle.  This is about us.  This is about our children.  This is about the way we live.  This is about our survival. 

To keep planet Earth from reaching the Tipping Point in Global Warming, we need to significantly decrease our reliance on coal, gasoline, and oil.  Significant, meaning cutting fossil fuels by 50% in the next 3 years and then another 50% in the following 10 years.

Now imagine you are one of the few people on Earth that currently own a large percentage of fossil fuels.  What would you do if you if you saw predictions of profit loss like these?  You’d probably fight like hell to stop this from coming true.  Pause when you hear messages about Climate Change and Global Warming.  Consider who is paying for the messages you hear, who is influencing your beliefs, and how this results in actions you take.

Climate change is either happening or not happening.  Climate change is either human-caused or out of human control.  In today’s media, there are arguments being made for both sides.  Think about the opposite side of the argument that you believe today.  What is the worst thing that could happen if the “other side” is right?  Let’s start talking about this with each other.  Let’s start listening to each other.  Let’s start acting together. 

“If you want to go quickly, go alone; if you want to go far, go together.”

– African Proverb

What Now?

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If you are starting to see the problem and feel uncomfortable – that was my point…  I’m not a climate scientist, just a mom.  I’m uncomfortable too.  Read more, share what you learn with others, and start seeing your own carbon emission footprint.  Use fuel-efficient, hybrid, electric cars, or public transportation.  Support carbon-free forms of energy (solar, wind, hydro, etc.).  Insulate your homes for winter (and save on your electric bill).  Think about how you can cut your energy needs – how much tv are you watching, how much time are you on electronic devices?  We also need to replant forests, conserve our soil resources, and consider carbon capture technologies.  This is going to take huge efforts by us individually and collectively through governmental policies of all countries on the planet. 

I may only be one person, but I care.  And a person that cares is a difference maker.  And with enough difference makers we can make an impact.  And with enough of an impact, we can curb future climate change.  We have all the tools we need. We just need to take the effort to care.

-Kim Clark