Climate Change (Part 1)

There was another dire warning issued last week (Oct 5, 2018) from the United Nations regarding Climate Change.  This prediction pulls in the time table for a Climate Crisis to as early as 2030 if carbon emissions are not immediately reduced. We are talking about are far enough into the future. This will be our lifetime, and the lifetime our children will grow up into.  The report asks for us to unite globally and create rapid, far-reaching changes at an unprecedented rate of change – and this sounds really hard to do.  This report makes me very uncomfortable as my sons will be graduating high school and college in 2030.  This report is calling me into action for my own future and that of my children - to become educated and then to talk about Climate Change with everyone, every day. Here I explain the basics, a place to start, so you can be comfortable talking about Climate Change too.

What does the Climate Crisis mean? Am I really supposed to stop driving a fuel-powered car and eat vegetarian? How can I afford to make changes? Is it worth the inconvenience?  Even if I do everything I can, this problem is so big, can I even make a difference? If I don’t feel like I’m making a difference, then why bother at all?

The UN Report was authored by several people educated to be experts in understanding our planet’s climate, and the authors represent several countries.  There is consistent agreement among the authors that Climate Change is happening, contrary to what some politicians are saying.  I think this probably leaves the average person somewhere in the middle, not sure what to believe, and even more unsure of what if anything they need to do and how much they should care. It’s also frustrating that there isn’t one resource on the Internet that breaks down Climate Change and Global Warming into simple concepts that we can each understand so we can talk about these issues with our friends and family and make educated choices

I am not a climate scientist, just a concerned citizen who cares about the world I leave behind for my children and future grandchildren.  This is my attempt to translate science language into every day words and provide information in bite-sized chunks through questions that I’ve been asking myself recently.  My hope is that this provides enough background that you are comfortable talking about Climate Change.

Let’s start at the beginning.  What is Global Warming and How is it Different than Climate Change?

When we talk about weather we are discussing local conditions (temperature, humidity, wind, degree of clouds, etc.) over a short period of time (in days).  Climate is a long-term trend (average weather) in a particular place over several years.

Global Warming refers to a long-term trend of rising average temperatures across the globe. 

Climate Change is a broader term that includes increased storm intensity, changing rain and snow patterns, and droughts.  These weather trends are changing because of Global Warming due to increased air and ocean temperatures.

How much has the earth’s temperature risen so far?  How much further can it go before we have a Climate Crisis?

Global temperatures have been recorded since 1880.  Between 1880 and 2018, the average global temperature has risen by 1.4 deg F (0.8 deg C).  In addition to the continual rising temperature, the rate of warming has been faster in recent decades.

The prediction of scientists is that when we reach a global average temperature increase of 2.7 deg F (1.5 deg C) compared with temperatures of 1880, we will hit a tipping point after which humans will not be able to have influence in stopping future warming.  Extreme drought, wildfires, floods, and food and water shortages for hundreds of millions of people are predicted.

2.7 deg F doesn’t sound like a lot….

Those predictions sound bad, but how can 2.7 deg F (1.5 deg C) possibly result in that outcome?  I live in MN where the winters get down to -20 deg F, and in the summer, temperatures reach over 100 deg F.    If I can live through all that each year of my life, it really doesn’t seem like a temperature change of 2.7 deg F will have any impact on my life or that of my children.  In fact, in the winter I’d be OK with a little warmer weather.

Weather fluctuates with predictable patterns.  It’s warmer in the day and cools off at night.  It’s warmer in the summer than the winter.  Local daily and hourly temperatures can change based on the season of the year, hours of daylight, cloud cover, wind speed, and moisture in the air – all things that are constantly changing.   The average temperature for the entire planet however is dependent on how much energy the Earth receives from the sun (which fluctuates very little) and the amount of energy captured within our atmosphere that cannot escape back into space (this is the factor that is slowly changing).

Think for a moment about your monthly electric bill in the winter.  The cost is more when you heat your house to 70 deg F than when you only heat it to 68 deg F (This is a frequent argument between my husband and I in the winter…)  The cost of your electric bill goes up because it takes more energy to heat all of the air in your house those 2 extra degrees.  Now think about our planet.  How much energy would it take to heat all of the air and water by 2 degrees.  2.7 deg F starts to feel a little more significant.

Another perspective is an example from the Earth’s past.  It was only a 9 deg F drop in global temperature that plunged our planet into the Ice Age of 20,000 years ago.  Small changes in global temperature have big consequences.

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Is Climate Change man-made or part of a cyclical weather pattern?

It is very true that the Earth has fluctuated temperatures in its past without the influence of humans.  Let’s talk about why scientists think the most recent rise in temperature is human-caused.

To look at this question, we need to talk about carbon, and before we can talk about carbon, let’s start with a greenhouse.  Imagine that it is a cool summer day and you are at the local nursery buying plants and you’ve walked into a greenhouse.  It’s warmer inside the greenhouse than outside because the sun’s energy is trapped by the glass.  The surfaces inside the greenhouse warm up from the sun’s rays and the heat generated inside can’t escape as easily as it can outside due to the glass.

The earth’s atmosphere includes gases known as “greenhouse gases.”  There are a few greenhouse gases, but the ones that are most frequently in the news are carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4).  Greenhouse gases are good.  Without these gases, the Earth’s average temperature would be 0 deg F, rather than its current average of 59 deg F.  We wouldn’t have liquid water to drink, and we probably wouldn’t be able to survive these temperatures.  Greenhouse gases work the same way as glass in a greenhouse built for plants.  They trap some of the energy from the sun and prevent it from escaping back into space.

Let’s focus now on one of the greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide.  Carbon dioxide is a very natural part of life.  Animals breathe in oxygen and breathe out carbon dioxide.  Plants use carbon dioxide and release oxygen.  All living things are made of carbon.  When plants and animals die, they decompose and release carbon.

Fossil fuels are remains of prehistoric plants and animals that decomposed and were subjected to heat, pressure and time.  When we burn fossil fuels, we make energy.  But we are burning something that used to be living, which was made of carbon, and consequently as we burn fossil fuels, we release carbon into the atmosphere where it forms carbon dioxide.

Carbon dioxide is a natural greenhouse gas, but as humans across the globe burn fossil fuels to power homes, businesses, and cars, we have released more carbon dioxide than would be in the atmosphere without us.

Scientists have been measuring the amount of carbon in our atmosphere, and this amount has been going up since we started burning fossil fuels.  It’s going up at a faster rate in recent years due to more humans living on Earth and an increased need for electricity to fuel our economy.  As carbon levels rise, there is a thicker blanket over our atmosphere trapping more heat inside.  As temperatures have increased with rising carbon, and because carbon dioxide is a natural greenhouse gas, scientists have made the link that increased carbon dioxide is leading to the increased global temperatures.  It seems therefore that humans are responsible for at least some of the rise in temperature. 

Why should I care about Global Warming and Climate Change? 

According to the most recent UN Report, the planet could trip the 2.7 deg F increase in global average temperature as early as 2030.  Those with lower incomes will be impacted first.  As temperatures increase, air conditioning will become more important and not everyone currently has access to cooled buildings in the summer.  Droughts, floods, and increased storm intensity will likely impact both our food source availability as well as the global economy.  Food prices will rise as a result.  Those living in already hot places will be impacted by water shortages, and those near coastlines will be impacted by increased flooding due to sea level increases.  People may be forced to leave these locations which would result in mass migration and potentially increased conflicts.  This could lead to more food shortage, more water shortage, over and over, until we have all been impacted in some way.  Additionally, if we reach this 2.7 degree increase in temperature increase, scientists think it will be much more difficult to reverse rising temperatures. 

We have already begun to see the impacts of rising temperatures.  Increased sea surge during recent hurricanes in the US is a result of rising sea levels.  Increased devastation from hurricanes inland due to large amounts of rainfall are the result of higher temperatures and increased humidity.  Flooding devastation in India, water shortages in South Africa, and increased wild fires in California are all due in part to the global warming which has already occurred.  These weather patterns are predicted to continue to increase in frequency and intensity as the planet continues to warm.

Why does Climate Change cause the sea level to rise?

Sea levels have been rising as a result of the planet warming due to two main factors.  First, land-based ice in our planet’s poles have been melting.  Second, as sea water warms, it expands.  The same amount of water at 17 deg C will take up more space at 18 deg C, resulting in rising sea levels.  Between 1993 and 2014, global seal levels rose 2.6 inches, and continue to rise at rates of about 1/8 an inch per year.

Why does Global Warming lead to storms increasing in intensity?

Increased global temperatures result in both increased air and sea temperatures. Increased sea surface temperature increases the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere creating a hotter and more humid environment.  Increased water vapor fuels storms, resulting in both increased wind speeds and increased precipitation.  Additionally, as sea levels are also rising, the threat to our global coast lines increases with both flooding potential and further damage by amplified coastal storm surge.

Continue to my next Post on Climate Change for more information.

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